Finally, Matt Campbell’s Cyclones have a Big 12 victory under their belts after handling West Virginia to bring their record to 4-5 on the season. That’s the good news, but the bad news is that Iowa State still has a long way to go if it wants to play in the postseason in 2022.
Four of the Cyclones’ five losses have come by seven points or less, but being competitive isn’t enough to get the job done. Iowa State still needs to find two more wins to make it back to a bowl game.
With three games to play, that’s a tough ask. Iowa State doesn’t have a lot of wiggle room left on the slate, as only one more loss is acceptable barring an NCAA waiver. Here’s what Iowa State’s prospects look like as we get to the end of the season.
Homecoming W!
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 5, 2022
What Are Iowa State’s Bowl Chances?
They’re not very good. The good news is that two of the three games are winnable, but the third is going to take virtually everything going right for Iowa State to have a chance.
Of the three, the most winnable game is Nov. 19 against Texas Tech. Matt Campbell has a 5-1 record against the Red Raiders and has never lost to Texas Tech at Jack Trice Stadium.
Like the Cyclones, the Red Raiders are 4-5. If Iowa State doesn’t beat Texas Tech, it can pretty much forget about playing in a bowl game.
Going to Oklahoma State looked intimidating at the start of October, but traveling to Stillwater no longer looks all that difficult.
Oklahoma State just got smacked around by both Kansas State and Kansas on consecutive weeks, and the Cowboys look like they’ve given up on the season now that they have three losses to their name.
Iowa State also lost to both the Wildcats and the Jayhawks, but the Cyclones fell by just one point to K-State and should have won at Kansas if not for a bad special teams performance.
As long as Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders remains sidelined, Oklahoma State doesn’t look like anything special.
TCU, on the other hand, does. The Horned Frogs need only one win to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game, and if they sweep their last three games, they just might make it to the College Football Playoff. Iowa State has won four of five against TCU, but a matchup in Fort Worth with this year’s team does not look promising. A win here is possible, but not likely.
Top performing Wide Receivers from Week 10🙌 pic.twitter.com/v5hDX87x9j
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 7, 2022
What Is Iowa State’s Best-Case Scenario?
Realistically, Iowa State’s best hope is to finish 6-6 and end the season in a minor bowl game. They won’t be one of the top six choices, so they’ll fall to the lowest tier of bowl choices for 2022 if they can qualify.
Given how this season has gone, the Cyclones aren’t going to be all that choosy about where they play in the postseason if they qualify.
They’ll take whatever game they can get, as the extra practices and 13th game will pay big benefits in 2023.
😤😤😤 pic.twitter.com/9oEe0eiTUR
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 6, 2022
What Bowls Are Most Likely for Iowa State?
The Big 12 has eight bowl tie-ins, and Iowa State is going to be one of the last teams selected. The Cyclones will almost certainly find themselves playing somewhere in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex for the postseason, as their most likely options are either the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth or the First Responder Bowl in Dallas.
In that scenario, Iowa State could be chosen ahead of Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had much higher hopes for 2022 than this, and their fans might not be all that excited about going four hours south for a bowl against a minor opponent. Iowa State, on the other hand, will likely be quite happy to play anywhere against anyone.
An interesting opponent might be Rice. The Owls haven’t played the Cyclones since 1994 and haven’t played in a bowl game since 2014. Rice needs one more win to qualify for the postseason, and would represent a motivated opponent for Iowa State should the Owls end up facing the Cyclones.
𝗖𝗮𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁. 𝗧𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻. @DeShawnhanika
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 6, 2022
Where Will Iowa State Likely Play?
The best-case scenario for the Cyclones is to take care of business against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and let the chips fall where they may.
Iowa State might not have wanted to end the season in a lower-level bowl game, but it’s not that bad of a destination for the Cyclones.
This is a young team with a lot of room to grow, and it could use a winnable game to end the season.
Plus, Iowa State does a lot of its recruiting in Texas. The Cyclones could show off some of their recruits one more time in either the Armed Forces or the First Responder Bowls, which would pay large dividends for the program in future seasons.
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 5, 2022
Credits on Featured Image: Iowa State Football Twitter
