The final day of the NBA regular season brings a high-stakes Western Conference matchup as the Denver Nuggets (49-32) head to Houston to face the No. 2-seeded Rockets (52-29). Denver still has playoff positioning to fight for — a win secures the 4th seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Houston, meanwhile, has its spot locked but faces the classic “rest vs. rust” dilemma.
Despite resting starters in recent blowout losses to the Lakers and Clippers, Houston’s full starting rotation is not listed on the injury report, signaling a potential tune-up before the postseason. That said, Ime Udoka has suggested his team “earned the right to choose their path,” and playing time could be limited.
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📺 How To Watch Nuggets vs. Rockets? (April 13, 2025)
📅 Sunday, April 13, 2025 | 🕒 3:30 PM ET |
🏟️ Toyota Center, Houston, TX
📺 TV: ALT, SCHN
📲 Stream: Fubo & NBA League Pass
📊 Betting Odds
| Market | Odds |
| Spread | Nuggets -7.5 |
| Moneyline | Nuggets -325 / Rockets +260 |
| Total (O/U) | 231.5 Points |
🔍 Betting Trends & Stats
🟡 Denver Nuggets
- ATS: 37-44-0 | ATS -8.5: 10-14
- Over/Under: 48-33 (56.8% to Over)
- Record as Favorite: 39-22 (63.9%)
- Avg PPG: 120.7 (3rd in NBA)
- Opp PPG Allowed: 116.9
- Recent Form: 5-5 in last 10 games
- Last Win: 117-109 vs. Memphis
- Nikola Jokic: 26 PTS, 16 REB, 13 AST (triple-double)
❗ Jokic remains the engine for Denver, while Jamal Murray (probable) could return from hamstring soreness.
🔴 Houston Rockets
- ATS: 43-38-0 | ATS +8.5: 3-0 vs. Nuggets this season
- Over/Under: 44-36-1 (35.8% to Over)
- Avg PPG: 114.3 | Opp PPG: 109.6 (6th in NBA)
- Recent Form: 6-4 in last 10 | 3 straight home wins
- Last Game: 140-109 loss @ Lakers (rested starters)
🔥 Jalen Green is averaging 21.4 PPG & shooting 36.8% from 3.
🚨 Cam Whitmore scored 34 points off the bench in L.A.
🎯 Top Prop Bet Suggestions: Nuggets vs. Rockets
🔥 Scoring Props
Nikola Jokic – Over 28.5 Points (-110)
- Jokic is averaging 29.8 PPG and Denver needs this win to avoid slipping to the play-in zone. Expect him to log full minutes.
- Houston’s intensity may waver late with playoff seeding locked.
Jalen Green – Over 2.5 Made Threes (-115)
- Averaging 2.9 3PM per game, and Houston may play him normal minutes to maintain rhythm before playoffs.
- Nuggets allow volume to guards beyond the arc (especially off screens).
Christian Braun – Over 14.5 Points (-105)
- Braun is stepping up recently (15.5 PPG avg in last 10), especially in secondary scoring role when Jokic draws doubles.
💪 Rebounding Props
Alperen Sengun – Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
- Averaging 10.4 RPG and will be a focal point inside, even in limited minutes.
- Denver’s Jokic often pulls defenders out of the paint, leaving Sengun more rebounding room.
Michael Porter Jr. – Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Averaging 7.0 RPG, and Houston’s pace gives more rebounding chances.
🎯 Assist Props
Jamal Murray – Over 5.5 Assists (-115)
- Averaging 6.1 APG, and tends to dish more in games with playoff implications.
Fred VanVleet – Under 5.5 Assists (+100)
- Rockets may monitor his minutes and he’s averaging 5.6 APG, but Denver’s defense is stout against initiating guards.
Aaron Gordon – Over 2.5 Assists (-115)
- Covered this line in 4 straight road games.
- Jokic gives him chances to be a secondary playmaker from the elbow or wing.
🚫 Defensive Props
Nikola Jokic – Over 1.5 Steals (+140)
- Averaging 1.8 steals/game, second in NBA. Rockets’ offensive miscues give Jokic plenty of pick-pocket opportunities.
Amen Thompson – Over 0.5 Blocks (+150)
- His length and athleticism give him rim-protection upside, especially on weakside help.
📈 Matchup History
- 🏆 Last Meeting: Nuggets 116, Rockets 111 @ Toyota Center
- 🔢 Last 10 Head-to-Head: Tied 5-5
- 📉 Nuggets have failed to cover -8.5 in 6 straight games
- ✅ Rockets have covered +8.5 in 10 straight home games
🧠 Expert ClutchBuzz Analysis
Expect a competitive game, despite contrasting motivations. Denver has every reason to push for a win to avoid falling to the 6- or 7-seed, but Houston will likely use this as a low-pressure tune-up to stay sharp before the playoffs.
While Denver brings the firepower, Houston has been dominant against the spread at home, especially when getting points. Look for Denver to control most of the game, but don’t be surprised if Houston sneaks in a backdoor cover — especially with the crowd energized and Whitmore, Thompson, and Sheppard providing sparks off the bench.
🔥 ClutchBuzz Best Bets
💵 Top Picks
- Rockets +8.5 (-110) ➝ Covered this line in 10 straight home games
- Over 231.5 Total Points (-115) ➝ 7 of Rockets’ last 10 have hit the over
- Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 Assists (-161) ➝ Hit in 4 straight road games
- Aaron Gordon Under 15.5 Points (-110) ➝ Under in 5 of last 8
🧪 ClutchBuzz Same Game Parlay (SGP)
| Market | Pick |
| Spread | Rockets +9.5 |
| Total Points | Over 233 |
| Player Prop | Aaron Gordon Over 2.5 AST |
💰 Parlay Odds: +375 (FanDuel)
🔍 Analysis: Houston keeps it tight at home, Denver brings offense, and Gordon facilitates.
🧠 Prediction
- Final Score: Nuggets 117, Rockets 111
- Pick ATS: Rockets +8.5
- Pick O/U: Over 231.5
This has all the makings of a playoff warm-up for both teams — expect Denver to secure the W, but Houston to keep it respectable.
