What is the best March Madness betting strategy? The NCAA Tournament, affectionately known as March Madness, provides tons of betting action.
Single-game wagers like moneyline and point spread, futures bets, prop betting, and so much more are available.
What Is The Best March Madness Betting Strategy?
If you plan on betting on March Madness, go into it with the right betting strategy. If you plan on betting March Madness season, a simple March Madness betting strategy will go a long way.
#1 – Look Beyond the Hottest Teams
The competition is fierce when the NCAA tournament rolls around. Betting on March Madness can feel like doing chemistry. The regular season offers some insight into these teams, but we often hear about how important it is to have momentum. March Madness betting often sees a big shift in odds around the hottest teams.
While college basketball is a game of momentum, it is far from the final point on the matter. Let’s look at teams like South Carolina and Michigan State. Both had untimely losses in their respective conference tournament. Does that mean that they have no chance to win their next game and beyond?
There are several factors that can lead a team to defy the odds, win game after game, and find themselves deep into the tournament. Look at efficiency metrics, the strength of each team’s schedule, and their overall depth to get a better sign of their odds.
Sharp bettors take a look at the season as a whole. They understand that the season is long, and each game can hold a different result. Sports betting is about having patience, and the best March Madness betting strategy is to look at the season-long performance of the teams involved.
Think about it from the prop betting perspective. When following an outstanding player, you will notice their play fluctuate from time to time. They can have a bad game, but the point is that the season as a whole is indicative of who they are.
When betting on March Madness, hot teams can be enticing. Some of them do make a run, but more often than not, the best teams will emerge. Look at how they do in the first half, how they do in the second half, and their history against the point spread. You will then find betting on March Madness makes a bit more sense.
#2 – Trust Proven Programs, But with Caution
Even though the players change from season to season, there are trends that unfold each season. In order to come up with a strong sports betting strategy, you need to take a deeper look at the numbers and identify the trends. Sportsbooks create each betting market by doing the same thing.
When it comes to March Madness betting, a strategy encompasses not only the matchups, but things like bonus bets from your chosen sportsbook. If you take advantage of an offer from, say, DraftKings Sportsbook, you need to have a strategy to make the most of that wager.
Proven programs like Duke, UConn, and others have been there again and again. They may not win it all – the entire point of March Madness is how anyone can win – but they routinely advance and make it deeper into the tournament than non-traditional programs.
Though it may not be quite so enticing to some bettors, a smart March Madness betting strategy may be to back the proven programs. Most will place multiple bets throughout the tournament, and there is no way to win all of them. By backing a proven program, bettors can give themselves a better chance to win than they would otherwise.
Betting on March Madness is a game in itself. Which point spread is worth taking? You can point to any number of favorites that should at least make it to the Round of 32, providing a simple yet effective March Madness betting option. Finding regularity in the tournament is a March Madness betting tip anyone can follow.
Even if you get stuck picking a game that features a major upset, you will do right by wagering on the proven teams more often than not. When the Sweet 16 rolls around, each game will be a bit tougher, but that’s another topic entirely.
#3 – Be Wary of Public Favorites in the Final Four
A common March Madness betting strategy is to fade the public. There are certain teams that the public loves more than anyone else, which is totally normal. That said, the sharp bettors will go against the betting public for a few reasons.
For starters, the odds will be inflated for those favorites. The line movement may seem insignificant, but a single point can make the difference when it comes to the spread in NCAA tournament games. The big favorites tend to come with a certain “public tax” in terms of the line.
Sportsbooks know that casual bettors also love to take the favorites. With billions of dollars wagered on March Madness, it can have an impact on the spread. For that reason, underdogs tend to do pretty well in the first round of the tournament when it comes to covering the spread.
Look for betting edges, especially in the first round. Even a half-point this way or that can have an impact on your betting strategy. Public favorites may be enticing, but you can fade them on the point spread even if they end up advancing.
Common Mistakes to Avoid During March Madness Betting Strategy
As much fun as it is to bet on all the March Madness games, there are some things to avoid during tournament play. With Selection Sunday in the rearview mirror, you can use these tips and reduce the chances of making a mistake, giving you a better chance to make a nice profit and beat the competition.
Betting Every Underdog
One of the best parts about betting March Madness is finding the right underdog wager. Big money can be made picking the right underdog teams, but the competition in the NCAA Tournament is fierce. The simple fact is that most of the teams that are underdogs in the first round will lose. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly and avoid popular March Madness bets.
Skip the Parlays
Parlays are among the most popular March Madness bets. The odds if you win will turn out a huge payout, setting you up for the next round of college basketball games. But there is a reason why March Madness odds are so high for parlays. The likelihood of a win on a parlay of March Madness games is slim, as the implied probability suggests. Bet on a single-game basis in each round, even if March Madness betting suggests a parlay.
Don’t Ignore Past Performance
The regular season can feel like a lifetime ago by the time March Madness games roll around. But the NCAA tournament is sometimes dictated by momentum from certain teams. Each game is a fresh start, and the teams that play well on conference tournament play often take that into the Big Dance. Teams playing well improve their odds of getting into the second round and beyond.
Avoid Chasing Losses
There is no worse feeling than seeing your wager lose. Even the best March Madness betting strategy can fail, and your bracket pool blown up. On the way to the college basketball final, avoid chasing losses. Teams are going to lose, and so will bettors. Take a break and come back the next day rather than placing multiple bets to try to win back some of that lost money.
Tips for Maximizing Value in March Madness Betting
Each game is a new opportunity. Though futures bets are an entirely different animal, the key to choosing the right teams and getting the most value out of your wager depends on a few things. Ahead of each round and game, there are a few of the best betting strategies to improve your chances of a huge payout and putting the odds in your favor.
Look for Experienced Coaches
Betting lines can be deceptive throughout March Madness. Before you place a wager, check out the coaches of each of these teams. The most experienced coaches have been there before, giving you a somewhat sound March Madness strategy that even advanced metrics can’t really get the hang of.
Check Out the Schedule
Though not all tips are enough to guarantee a win, one of the best March Madness betting tips you will find involves checking out the schedule ahead of time. Ahead of each round, teams will face different matchups, drastically changing the bracket pool. Research is your friend, so look for high seeds that have a propensity for lower seed teams playing close and simply pick using advanced metrics where possible. You can find some pretty profitable bets that way.
Do Your Homework
At the end of the day, March Madness season is about having as much information as possible. College basketball teams can elevate their games during March Madness, making it tough for casual fans to make the right play. Smart bettors do their homework, back high seeds, and eye the futures market starting on Selection Sunday. Use the data to your benefit, and the right betting strategy can lead to some serious money throughout the NCAA tournament.
