Ah, September. The days a slowly getting shorter, the weather getting crisper, and the new fall season of your favorite primetime tv show is scheduled to start any day.
September also signals the final stretch of the Major League Baseball season and the race for either the division crown or one of the three Wild Card spots. While the National League is essentially a three-team race between the Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers for two spots (the Atlanta Braves have all but locked up the top WC spot), the American League playoff race mathematically remains wide open.
For weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays have been jostling for position among the top three Wild Card seeds with the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins making noise from the outside looking in.
The Twins also have the opportunity to outright win the American League Central Division, sitting just a handful of games behind the White Sox and division-leading Cleveland Guardians. With each team having approximately fifteen games remaining on their 2022 schedule, it is now or never for the Twins to make one final amazing effort to sneak into the postseason.
Currently, ClutchBuzz has the Twins playoff hopes on life support, with an odd of +10000 to win the division and +12500 of being the American League Championship Series winner. So what we are saying is that there is still a dim light at the end of the tunnel. Realistically, for the organization and its fans, the most realistic thing to do is look forward to what could be a promising 2023 season.
Another night, another Amazing Cave. @ticasino x #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/YcXgJMXnzF
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 16, 2022
What Went Wrong This Season
There was a lot of promise for the Minnesota Twins to return to the postseason this year as at one point they held a five-game lead atop the AL Central. Unfortunately, that lead started to evaporate in the middle of summer when right fielder Max Kepler and third baseman Miguel Sano got put on the injured list. Last season, Sano appeared to have another All-Star-worthy season, giving hope for a return to the mid-season classic this year. Unfortunately, a torn meniscus early in the season has limited him to just twenty games. Kepler, while playing 115 games has suffered through a broken toe and a sprained wrist.
You can then add All-Star centerfielder Byron Buxton to the ever-growing M.A.S.H. unit. While his injury came early in the season on April 15th, with a jammed knee, he didn’t seem to be the same after the fact, given that he would have it drained and filled with injections on a regular basis.
Promising rookie Royce Lewis had been on a tear in the Twins minor league system and had a great debut which lasted all of twelve games before re-tearing his ACL when he crashed into the outfield wall while playing out of his regular shortstop position. Speaking of young talent, first baseman Alex Kirilloff cannot seem to catch a break as wrist issues shut him down for his second straight season.
Putting all of the injuries aside, the team still managed to compete for the AL Central lead until the beginning of September. While you cannot do anything about injuries, it would ultimately be their sloppy and inconsistent play in the final month and a half of the season that would lead to the team dropping out of the playoff race. At times their aggressive baserunning, while exciting, would find players thrown out without much of a chance. And if the team did manage to put runners in scoring position, they struggled to cash runs in.
#TwinsWin No. 500 in Target Field regular-season history! pic.twitter.com/te24WfRxuX
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 16, 2022
What Does The Team Need To Change
Unfortunately, you cannot put players in a bubble, otherwise, the Twins would more than likely still be leading the AL Central and you wouldn’t be reading this piece.
One of the biggest changes to the Twins may not have anything to do with the lineup, but the rules of the game. When the MLB decided to ban the defensive shift, it could have a major impact on the team’s hitting and defensive strategies next season. Kelper, Kirilloff, and Buxton will all likely benefit greatly from not having to deal with a loaded defense on their pull side.
Outside of Buxton and Carlos Correa, the Twins’ defense isn’t extremely flashy and has relied heavily on the shift defense over the years to the point in which they play it 43.3%
of the time, compared to the league average of 34.2% (the Toronto Blue Jays play it the most at 52.7%). While doing away with the shift isn’t going to make or break the Twins’ defense, the team will have to improve their athleticism, speed, and range next season to make up for their inability to stack one side.
Speaking of athleticism, speed, and range, when the team signed shortstop Correa to a 3yr/$105 million deal in the offseason with opt-out opportunities after each year, many fans were skeptical that the All-Star shortstop would remain in Minnesota past this season. While there are several big-name shortstops on the Free Agent market this offseason, consistency with this lineup is important, which means trying to keep Correa on the roster.
The Experience. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/kxwFJpnepV
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 19, 2022
Who Should They Keep?
Pitching Rotation – While the team does not have an all-world pitching ace, they do have four very capable starters in Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan. Unfortunately, after those four, things on the mound get dicey. Dylan Bundy, Devin Smeltzer, Chris Archer, Chris Paddock, and Aaron Sanchez are expendable after not really showing much of anything this season.
Coming out of the bullpen, Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran have all shown value as middle relievers and both Jorge Lopez and Jorge Alcala are worth keeping on the depth chart. The team will likely also keep at least two of either Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, or Josh Winder.
Look for the team to part ways with Danny Coulombe, Austin Davis, Tyler Duffey, Juan Minaya, Emilio Pagan, and Cody Stashak in the offseason.
Clearly, the team cannot and likely will not part ways with a dozen pitchers, but that goes to show how flakey the Twins’ pitching has been this season.
Fielders – Correa, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Kepler Trevor Larnach, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, Ryan Jeffers, and Kyle Garlick all make a great lineup in some way shape, or form when they are all healthy. The key word is “when”. Add in top prospect Matt Wallner and the lineup is set.
Another game, another Gordon homer. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/IN8xfVH2lx
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 19, 2022
Who Should Be Let Go?
As for Sano, Gary Sanchez, Billy Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Jake Cave, and Gio Urshela, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if many of them don’t return to the Twins lineup next season. Caleb Hamilton and Gilberto Celestino may stick with the team as depth insurance, which considering the rash of injuries suffered this season is much needed.
Coaching Staff – Since taking over for Paul Molitor at the start of the 2019 season, Rocco Baldelli has guided the team to two post-season appearances, but is on the verge of recording back-to-back misfires. While the team doesn’t necessarily have to hand over a pink slip, he will likely be on the hot seat if he doesn’t lock down not just a playoff appearance, but a win next season.
Don’t be surprised if Pete Maki doesn’t return in 2023, or at least has a very short leash. After Wes Johnson, who served as the Twins pitching coach since 2018, left for a gig with the Louisiana State Tigers, the team saw their runs per nine innings balloon from 4.02 up to 4.58. While the blame can’t all fall on the coach, it’s often easier to move a non-roster player.
The groan of the crowd. pic.twitter.com/w2COt56MTd
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 18, 2022
Can Twins Fans Have Hope For A More Successful Season Next Year?
After a rocky start to the 2022 season which left Twins fans questioning their faith, with a 4-8 record, the Twins quickly managed to turn that record into 15-9 and top spot in the AL Central. From April 24 until June 22, the team held on to the division lead. Despite losing four of five games, the Twins would only be out of first place for a day, regaining their top seed until August 10 when the wheels started to fall off the cart, falling behind by as many as seven games on September 17.
Judging by those numbers, the Twins, regardless of injury, scoring slumps, or who is on the mound, clearly have the ability to not only compete, but outright win their division. If Baldelli learns how not to micromanage the game and rely so much on analytics rather than the feel for what’s happening at the moment, the Twins are capable of competing for the AL Central crown next season
Hello. We have scored a run. pic.twitter.com/BFlFRSNRGf
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 18, 2022
Credits on Featured Image: Andy Witchger, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons
