March Madness delivers another blockbuster as regular season SEC champions Auburn vs Michigan State promises a clash for the ages in the Elite Eight. Both teams boast elite resumes, battle-tested rosters, and Final Four aspirations. But only one can punch their ticket to the national semifinals.
This isn’t just a 1-seed vs. 2-seed matchup—this is a collision of two programs built for deep tournament runs. Auburn is hot, confident, and playing just 100 miles from campus in an Atlanta arena that promises to feel like a home game. Michigan State is gritty, experienced, and led by the most trusted man in March: Tom Izzo.
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🔥 How Auburn Got Here
- Round of 64: def. Alabama State 83-63
- Round of 32: def. Creighton 82-70
- Sweet 16: def. Michigan 78-65
Auburn stumbled early against Michigan, trailing by eight midway through the second half. But once Johni Broome and company got rolling, they steamrolled the Wolverines with a 31-8 run, completely flipping the game’s momentum. Broome posted 22 points and 16 rebounds, while Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford added a combined 40 points.
Bruce Pearl’s Tigers are elite on both ends—2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and they’re a nightmare in transition. They’re now one win away from the Final Four for the second time under Pearl.
🟢 How Michigan State Got Here
- Round of 64: def. Bryant 87-62
- Round of 32: def. New Mexico 71-63
- Sweet 16: def. Ole Miss 73-70
The Spartans survived a scare against Ole Miss. They looked sluggish and indecisive for much of the game but freshman star Jase Richardson (20 points) and Coen Carr (15 points) sparked a late push. Despite being outrebounded 33-29, MSU made free throws late and locked in defensively when it mattered.
Michigan State is not as explosive as Auburn, but they’re 7th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in 3-point defense, and they love turning games into half-court battles.
📊 Auburn vs Michigan State: Statistical Head-to-Head
| Stat Category | Auburn | Michigan State |
| Overall Record | 31-5 | 30-6 |
| KenPom Rank | 4th | 7th |
| Adj. Offensive Efficiency | 128.3 (3rd) | 118.8 (24th) |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency | 93.2 (11th) | 90.4 (4th) |
| 3PT % | 36.6% | 34.1% |
| 3PT Defense | 28.0% (2nd) | 30.5% |
| Rebound Margin | +7.4 | +5.1 |
| Tempo (Adjusted) | 147th | 171st |
| SOS (Strength of Schedule) | 2nd | 29th |
Auburn has the offensive edge across the board—but Michigan State thrives in physical, defensive slogs, and can neutralize elite shooters with their length and perimeter defense.
⭐️ Key Players to Watch
🐅 Auburn Tigers
Johni Broome (F, Sr.)
A Wooden Award finalist, Broome is one of the best big men in college basketball. His 22-point, 16-rebound Sweet 16 performance showcased his dominance on both ends.
Denver Jones (G)
A dynamic shot creator who’s averaged 18+ PPG in March. If MSU focuses too much on Broome, Jones can punish from the perimeter.
Tahaad Pettiford (G)
The freshman sparkplug had 20 off the bench vs. Michigan and can shift the game with his speed.
⚔️ Michigan State Spartans
Jase Richardson (G, Fr.)
The freshman has exploded late in the season. He’s the Spartans’ best shot at generating consistent offense and had 20 points vs. Ole Miss.
Jaden Akins (G, Sr.)
A defensive ace with streaky shooting ability. He’ll likely guard Jones or Pettiford and must contribute at least 12-15 points for MSU to keep pace.
Coen Carr (F)
A bouncy, physical wing who gives MSU toughness and flexibility on defense. Expect him to draw time against Broome in small-ball looks.
🧠 Coaching Battle: Izzo vs Pearl
Two March legends meet again.
- Tom Izzo: 8 Final Fours. 24+ NCAA Tournament wins. One of the most respected coaches in college hoops. The Spartans are 36-10 straight-up in the tournament as a 4-seed or better under Izzo.
- Bruce Pearl: Rebuilt Auburn into a national contender. One Final Four (2019), and a roster this year that’s deeper and more dangerous than that squad. When the Tigers get hot, few can stop them.
Edge: Experience says Izzo. Momentum and roster say Pearl.
💰 Betting Analysis: Odds, Total, and Best Bets
- Spread: Auburn -6.5
- Over/Under: 147.5
- Moneyline: Auburn -278 | MSU +225
- Public Betting: 58% backing Auburn ATS
🔒 Best Bets:
- Auburn -6.5 – With the Atlanta crowd behind them, Auburn’s depth and athleticism could overwhelm MSU late.
- Over 147.5 – Both teams have shown the ability to get hot. MSU plays faster than usual when trailing, and Auburn is built to score in bunches.
- Johni Broome Over 9.5 rebounds – MSU lacks the post size to truly neutralize him.
🔑 Keys to Victory
For Auburn:
- Dominate the boards: If Auburn wins the rebound battle by double digits, they’ll control the tempo.
- Push pace early: Don’t let MSU settle into their defensive shell.
- Defend without fouling: MSU will try to win at the line in a grind-it-out game.
For Michigan State:
- Slow the game down: Force Auburn into half-court sets and contest every three.
- Get hot from deep: Akins, Richardson, and Carr need to hit outside shots to stretch the defense.
- Stay close through 30 minutes: Auburn tends to pull away late—MSU must withstand the second-half run.
🏆 Final Prediction: Who Wins Auburn vs Michigan State?
Tom Izzo will bring his best plan. Michigan State will fight. But Auburn’s explosiveness, depth, and home-court advantage in Atlanta give them too many advantages in too many areas.
Unless MSU catches fire from three or Auburn goes ice cold, the Tigers have more paths to victory.
Final Score Prediction: Auburn 84, Michigan State 75
Pick: Auburn -6.5, Over 147.5
MVP: Johni Broome (24 pts, 12 reb, 3 blocks)
📺 How to Watch Auburn vs Michigan State Elite Eight
- Date: Sunday, March 30, 2025
- Time: 5:05 PM ET
- Channel: CBS
- Streaming: NCAA March Madness Live, Paramount+
- Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
🧠 Takeaway: Will Auburn Reach Another Final Four?
Auburn has all the tools—elite offense, interior dominance, and a rising bench—to make a national title run. But Michigan State has Tom Izzo, one of the best to ever pace the sidelines in March. Expect a battle, but expect Auburn to roar into the Final Four.
