The NCAA Tournament is hitting the Sweet 16, and the spotlight is on: Houston vs Purdue. Tipping off Friday night at the legendary Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, this Midwest Regional game is loaded with stars, matchup magic, and high stakes. The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars will face the No. 4 seed Purdue Boilermakers in what should be one of the Sweet 16’s best games.
This isn’t just about advancing to the Elite Eight—it’s a showcase of two great programs, great coaching, and execution under pressure. Here’s your full preview, including background, storylines, key players, head-to-head stats, betting odds and more.
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Houston and Purdue: Two Different Paths to the Sweet 16
Both Houston and Purdue are coming off strong tournament performances, but their roads to Lucas Oil Stadium have been different.
Houston’s Tournament
The Houston Cougars opened with a first round blowout of SIU Edwardsville, cruising to a 78–40 win behind a stifling defense and balanced scoring. But things got much tougher in the second round, where the Cougars survived a late-game scare against Gonzaga on Saturday night, winning 81–76.
LJ Cryer was the hero with 30 points, while J’Wan Roberts was all-around fantastic—18 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists. Joseph Tugler was huge on both ends with 10 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks.
Purdue’s Path
The Purdue Boilermakers have been impressive too. They took care of High Point in the first round, 75–63, and then McNeese State in the second round, 76–62. While both opponents were double-digit seeds, Purdue’s rebounding, discipline and ball movement gave them the edge.Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith, and Fletcher Loyer have been key contributors. Kaufman-Renn has been physical in the paint and Smith is running the floor.
Game Info: When and Where to Watch Houston vs Purdue
- Matchup: No. 1 Houston vs No. 4 Purdue
- Event: NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
- Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
- Time: 10:09 p.m. ET
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- TV: TBS / TruTV
- Streaming: NCAA March Madness Live
Kelvin Sampson’s Full Circle in Indianapolis
Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson returns to Indianapolis for the first time since 2007 when he resigned as Indiana’s coach due to NCAA recruiting violations involving too many phone calls—a violation that seems so quaint compared to today’s standards.
He took full responsibility at the time:
“I’m deeply disappointed in today’s findings by the NCAA, but the accusations at hand are things that happened on my watch… I am truly sorry… it is time to move on.”
After a five-year show-cause penalty and several years away from college basketball, Sampson took over at Houston in 2014 and has engineered one of the great turnarounds in the sport. He’s 295–83 and has taken the Cougars to the NCAA Tournament in seven of the last eight years.
Still, Sampson is particular—especially about his name:
“It’s like calling me Kevin. My name is not Kevin. It’s Kelvin. My mother used to say, ‘Don’t let people call you Kevin.’”
Head-to-Head Record & Team Comparison
Here’s how the teams stack up heading into the Sweet 16:
| Team | Last 5 (W-L) | Avg. PPG | Opponent PPG | ATS Win % | Over % (Total Points) |
| Houston | 5–0 | 76.4 | 60.4 | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Purdue | 5–0 | 75.0 | 74.0 | 40.0% | 40.0% |
Statistical Breakdown: Houston vs Purdue
| Category | Houston | Purdue |
| Points Per Game | 74.5 (154th) | 77.7 (79th) |
| Points Allowed | 58.4 (1st) | 70.6 (135th) |
| Rebound Margin | +10.9 (38th) | +8.5 (210th) |
| 3-Pointers Made Per Game | 8.1 (134th) | 8.3 (110th) |
| Assists Per Game | 12.1 (286th) | 15.8 (46th) |
| Turnovers Per Game | 8.6 (5th) | 10.0 (69th) |
Houston leads the nation in scoring defense, making this a critical matchup against a Purdue team that thrives on offensive rhythm and second-chance opportunities.
Star Players to Watch
Houston Cougars
- LJ Cryer – 15.6 PPG, 3.1 3PM, 90.5% FT
- J’Wan Roberts – 10.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.7 APG
- Emanuel Sharp – 12.5 PPG, 42.5% 3PT, 89.2% FT
- Milos Uzan – 11.6 PPG, 4.3 APG
- Joseph Tugler – 5.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG
Purdue Boilermakers
- Trey Kaufman-Renn – 20.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG
- Braden Smith – 16.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, 2.3 3PM
- Fletcher Loyer – 13.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG
- C.J. Cox – 6.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG
Betting Lines, Predictions & Picks
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
- Spread: Houston -7.5
- Moneyline: Houston -395 | Purdue +310
- Total (O/U): 132.5
Expert Projections
- ESPN BPI:
- Predicted Winner: Houston
- Win Probability: 79.4%
- Predicted Margin: 8.5 points
- Matchup Quality Score: 90.7
- KenPom:
- Predicted Score: Houston 71, Purdue 64
- Win Probability: 73%
ClutchBuzz Pick
- Against the Spread: Purdue +7.5
- Total: Over 132.5
- Final Score Prediction: Houston 74, Purdue 67
🔍 KenPom Analysis: Houston vs Purdue Breakdown
When it comes to analytical insights in college basketball, KenPom rankings offer one of the most trusted predictive models in the game. For the Sweet 16 clash between Houston and Purdue, the KenPom data favors the Cougars—but not by an overwhelming margin.
KenPom Predicted Score
- Houston 71, Purdue 64
- Win Probability (Houston): 73%
Efficiency Metrics
| Category | Houston Rank | Purdue Rank |
| Adjusted Offensive Efficiency | Top 25 | Top 20 |
| Adjusted Defensive Efficiency | Top 3 | ~70th |
| Tempo | Slow (Bottom 100) | Moderate |
| Effective FG % Defense | Top 5 | Mid-tier |
🧠 What It Means:
- Houston’s Defense is elite. They force tough shots, limit second-chance points, and rarely foul—hallmarks of a Kelvin Sampson team. Their adjusted defensive efficiency places them among the top three in the nation, a major reason why they’re projected to win despite facing a high-powered Purdue offense.
- Purdue’s Offense is no slouch. With players like Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, the Boilermakers rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. They share the ball well (15.8 assists per game) and knock down shots at a consistent rate.
- The Tempo Factor favors Houston. They play one of the slowest tempos in Division I, which allows them to control pace and grind out possessions. If Purdue can speed up the game and force turnovers, the dynamic could shift in their favor.
In conclusion, KenPom gives Houston the edge, especially due to their suffocating defense. However, Purdue’s offensive efficiency and physicality on the boards suggest they’re more than capable of pulling off an upset if they execute with precision.
The Bigger Picture: Championship Aspirations
With six Final Four appearances and no national titles, Houston remains the most accomplished NCAA program never to cut down the nets. Could 2025 finally be their year?
Purdue, meanwhile, is fighting for respect—and revenge. After early exits in past tournaments, this Sweet 16 is a shot at redemption and a chance to take down one of the tournament’s biggest favorites.
Best Bets: Can Houston Overpower Purdue’s Grit?
Everything points to a defensive battle on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium, but Purdue’s physical play, sharp shooting, and ability to control the glass could disrupt Houston’s rhythm.
The Houston vs Purdue matchup promises to be one of the most exciting games in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 slate. Whether you’re tuning in for LJ Cryer’s scoring, J’Wan Roberts’ hustle, or Trey Kaufman-Renn’s inside dominance, one thing is clear: this game has all the ingredients for a March Madness classic.
