Iowa State vs. Ole Miss square off in a Round of 32 matchup, each coming off a first-round victory.
Both teams punched their ticket to this second-round matchup with impressive first-round wins. No. 3 seed Iowa State dominated No. 14 seed Lipscomb 82-55 behind a stifling defensive effort and a hometown breakout from sophomore Milan Momčilović.
The Cyclones’ defense never let up, holding Lipscomb to 55 points and forcing a slew of turnovers in a wire-to-wire win. Meanwhile, No. 6 seed Ole Miss prevailed 71-64 over No. 11 seed North Carolina in a game that saw the Rebels storm to a 44-26 halftime lead and then survive a late Tar Heels rally.
Ole Miss was actually a slight 1.5-point underdog despite the better seed, but Chris Beard’s squad proved the doubters wrong as transfer guard Sean Pedulla led the way with 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Now, Iowa State’s smothering defense meets Ole Miss’s dynamic backcourt in an exciting Round of 32 showdown.
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Key Players to Watch
🔑 Curtis Jones, G, Iowa State
The senior guard leads the Cyclones in scoring at 17.1 PPG. Jones is a prolific shooter (2.6 threes per game on 37% 3PT) and an 84% foul shooter, providing a reliable scoring punch in Iowa State’s offense. Look for Jones to attack the Rebels’ perimeter defense; he had a quieter first game, but as a 30-point scorer at his peak, he’s a prime candidate to step up in Round 2.
🔑 Tamin Lipsey, G, Iowa State
Iowa State’s sophomore point guard does a bit of everything. Lipsey averages 10.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 2.0 steals per game, spearheading the Cyclones on both ends. He led the Big 12 in steals (66 total) and is ranked top-5 nationally in steals per game with his quick hands and anticipation. Offensively, he’s the floor general who will orchestrate Iowa State’s sets – and his matchup with Ole Miss’s guards (like Pedulla) will be a decisive factor.
🔑 Matthew Murrell, G, Ole Miss
A fifth-year senior and the Rebels’ leading scorer (16.0 PPG), Murrell is the heart and soul of Ole Miss. The 6’4″ guard is a proven three-level scorer and a solid defender on the wing. Murrell poured in 14 points in the win over UNC and has the experience of 100+ career games – his ability to create shots against Iowa State’s elite defense will be crucial for the Rebels.
🔑 Sean Pedulla, G, Ole Miss
The Virginia Tech transfer has given Ole Miss a huge boost at point guard. Pedulla averaged 15+ PPG and 5 APG in the ACC and showed his all-around game in Round 1 with 20 points, 5 assists and some clutch plays to fend off UNC. He’s a “great all-around guard,” per preseason evaluations, who can shoot from deep and facilitate.
Pedulla’s ball-handling versus Iowa State’s pressure (the Cyclones force 15.4 turnovers per game) will be a key subplot; if he takes care of the ball and sets up teammates like Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield, the Rebels’ offense can find a rhythm.
Iowa State vs. Ole Miss Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Iowa State -6.5 (Ole Miss +6.5)
- Moneyline: Iowa State -270, Ole Miss +220
- Total (Over/Under): 131.5 points
The market expects Iowa State to win by a few possessions in a moderately low-scoring game. The Cyclones being favored by about 6–7 points reflects their higher seed and efficiency margins, while the over/under in the low 130s signals a game where defense will be prominent.
Iowa State covered comfortably in Round 1 as a favorite, and Ole Miss rewarded backers as an underdog; oddsmakers now position Iowa State as the clear favorite on a neutral floor. A total near 131 suggests a grind-it-out affair – not a surprise given the Cyclones’ defensive reputation and the fact Ole Miss just held UNC to 64 points. Bettors will need to decide if Iowa State’s offense can carry over its 80+ point output from Round 1 or if this turns into a defensive slugfest closer to the Rebels’ first game scoreline.
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
Iowa State
🔑 Strengths: Defense, defense, defense
The Cyclones hang their hat on being one of the nation’s most disruptive defensive units. They allow just 67.7 PPG and held opponents to 41.6% shooting this season. Their aggressive style forces about 15 turnovers per game, creating run-outs and easy buckets (almost 20 points off turnovers per game for ISU).
In the paint, Iowa State’s size is imposing – they out-rebound teams by +3.9 per game and just bullied Lipscomb with a 40-24 edge in points in the paint. Offensively, Iowa State is better than some realize, with balanced scoring (four players average double figures) and an ability to shoot 36% from deep as a team.
⚠️ Weaknesses
Iowa State can be prone to scoring droughts at times, especially if their outside shots aren’t falling.
They play at a deliberate tempo and can hit lulls where even Curtis Jones or others struggle to create shots. In such stretches, their offensive efficiency dips – we saw a hint of that when a 22-point lead over Lipscomb early in the second half shrank briefly as the offense stalled.
Turnovers can also be an issue on occasion; the Cyclones commit about 11.9 turnovers per game themselves. Against Ole Miss’s pesky guards, careless ball-handling could let the Rebels stick around.
Lastly, Iowa State’s free-throw shooting, while a solid 75.6% overall, can be top-heavy (Jones and Momčilović are reliable, but some rotation bigs are less so), which could matter in a close late-game scenario.
Ole Miss
🔑 Strengths: Backcourt play and opportunistic defense
The Rebels feature a deep guard rotation that fuels their offense – aside from Murrell and Pedulla, Ole Miss gets contributions from combo guard Dre Davis (who had 13 points on 3-3 from deep in Round 1) and others.
This team can shoot the three when in rhythm (34.3% 3PT) and showed that by hitting 53% from downtown in the first half vs. UNC. Chris Beard’s squad also defends aggressively on the perimeter; they forced 14.2 turnovers per game and notched 8.7 steals per game during the season.
In fact, Ole Miss’s turnover margin was +5.1 – they took care of the ball extremely well (only 9.1 turnovers per game committed, one of the best rates in the nation) while pressuring opponents into mistakes. That ball security was on full display against UNC’s athletic defense, as the Rebels coughed it up only 8 times in the upset. Another strength is coaching and toughness – Beard is 6-0 in NCAA first-round games in his career, and his teams often play with a chip on their shoulder. Ole Miss showed great composure in weathering UNC’s second-half run, which bodes well if this game is tight late.
⚠️ Weaknesses
The Rebels have a tendency to go cold offensively for stretches. In the UNC game, they endured a 5:42 scoring drought in the second half that nearly erased their big lead. If Ole Miss hits a dry spell like that against Iowa State’s even better defense, it could be devastating.
One reason for those droughts is inconsistent half-court execution – at times the Rebels rely too heavily on Murrell’s shot-making or Pedulla’s playmaking, and the offense can stagnate if those two are bottled up.
Ole Miss also has a glaring weakness on the boards: they were out-rebounded by 4.4 per game this year. Lacking an elite big man in the post (after losing their 7-foot centers from last season), the Rebels gave up a lot of second-chance points and were vulnerable inside (opponents shot 50% inside the arc on them).
This could spell trouble against Iowa State’s frontcourt. Foul trouble is another concern – three Rebels had 3+ fouls vs. UNC as they got a bit too physical trying to hold the lead. Depth drops off in the forward spots, so Ole Miss needs Brakefield and Dia to defend without fouling.
KenPom and Advanced Metrics For Iowa State vs. Ole Miss
By the numbers, Iowa State is the more efficient team on both ends. KenPom (adjusted) ratings rank Iowa State’s offense 20th in the country (118.9 points per 100 possessions) and their defense 7th (91.4 points allowed per 100) – an elite defensive profile.
Ole Miss is no slouch: the Rebels’ adjusted offensive efficiency is 35th nationally and their defense is 29th, per KenPom. In other words, both teams are among the top 40 on both offense and defense, but Iowa State has a top-10 caliber defense that could be the X-factor.
📊 Tempo
Neither team plays particularly fast. Iowa State prefers a half-court game – they rank outside the top 250 in adjusted tempo (they typically play around 66 possessions per game, which is below NCAA average). Ole Miss plays at a slightly faster pace but still middle-of-the-pack, often in the mid-70s for points scored. In their first-round wins, the pace was moderate: Iowa State’s game had 137 total points (a chunk of those coming off turnovers), while Ole Miss vs. UNC totaled 135 points with the Rebels deliberately slowing things down to protect the lead. Expect a controlled tempo in this matchup, which puts a premium on each possession. If either team can speed the other up or force miscues to get easy transition baskets, it would be a huge advantage.
Head-to-Head Stats Comparison
| Team | Points Per Game | Opp. Points Per Game | FG% (Offense) | Rebounds Per Game | Turnovers Per Game | Adj. Off. Efficiency (Rank) | Adj. Def. Efficiency (Rank) |
| Iowa State | 80.4 | 67.7 | 48.3% | 35.4 | 11.9 | 118.9 (20) | 91.4 (7) |
| Ole Miss | 77.0 | 71.5 | 44.2% | 33.3 | 9.1 | 116.9 (35) | 96.0 (29) |
Key stats from the 2024-25 season for Iowa State and Ole Miss. Iowa State scores a bit more and defends better on average, while Ole Miss excels at limiting turnovers. KenPom’s efficiency ratings (adjusted for opponent strength and tempo) give the Cyclones the edge on both offense and defense.
Final Score Prediction and Best Bets
This game has the makings of a competitive battle, but Iowa State’s balance and defensive might should ultimately prevail. Prediction: Iowa State 68, Ole Miss 60.
The Cyclones’ ability to generate extra possessions (via offensive boards and turnovers forced) will wear down Ole Miss in the second half, allowing Iowa State to pull away late.
That scoreline would cover the spread and come in under the total, which aligns with the expectation of a defensive tussle. Check how to bet on March Madness here.
Iowa State vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
Iowa State -6.5 and the Under 131.5 are attractive leans given the matchup dynamics – Iowa State has covered in 7 of its last 9 games, and their defense often drives games under the total. The Rebels may struggle to reach their season average against this unit.
On the player prop side, one to watch is Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson over 7.5 rebounds – the junior averages 7.4 RPG and faces an Ole Miss squad that was outrebounded by 4.4 per game. Jefferson could feast on the glass, extending possessions for Iowa State. Remember to take advantage of ClutchBuzz DraftKings betting promo.
Additionally, keep an eye on Tamin Lipsey’s steals prop – his active hands (2+ steals in 5 of the last 6 games) could terrorize an Ole Miss team that hasn’t seen a defense this relentless all year. In what should be a physical, hard-fought game, the Cyclones’ defensive consistency and extra scoring options make them the pick to advance to the Sweet 16. Who is going to win the game between Iowa State vs. Ole Miss? Place your bets!
