The days of Iowa women’s basketball fighting for respect are a distant memory. Everyone who follows the sport knows how powerful Lisa Bluder’s squad is after four straight appearances in the NCAA tournament, including two No. 2 seeds in the past three tournaments. With Caitlin Clark leading the Hawkeyes, the question’s starting to come up: could the Hawkeyes go one better and earn a No. 1 seed?
It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but it’s going to be difficult. You can check here how to watch Iowa Hawkeyes basketball on TV.
Here’s a look at what the Iowa women have to do to land a top seed next month!
Who Is Iowa’s Competition for a No. 1 Seed?
At least one top seed is locked up. Barring a collapse, under no circumstances will anyone dislodge defending national champion South Carolina from the top line. The Gamecocks own a 26-0 record and will surely be the top overall seed. Plus, their regional will be held in Greenville, 104 miles from South Carolina’s campus. That’s one reason why Iowa wants to get off the No. 2 line: nobody wants to be the unlucky No. 2 seed that has to try to take down the Gamecocks in their home state to reach the Final Four.
Beyond that, Big Ten rival Indiana joins usual suspects Connecticut, LSU and Stanford in the race for a top seed. Ironically, the Huskies, the biggest name in women’s basketball, might be the most vulnerable.
With Paige Bueckers out for the season and Azzi Fudd banged up, UConn has little depth and hasn’t looked as strong as in past seasons. LSU could also be vulnerable, as the Tigers’ record is highly suspect. Their only loss was to South Carolina, but it wasn’t close, a 24-point defeat in Columbia.
And that’s the only ranked team the Tigers have faced all season long. Conversely, Iowa has faced and beaten ranked teams Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa State, while giving credible efforts in losses to UConn and Indiana. Based on strength of schedule, Iowa has a real case against LSU.
What Must Iowa Do to Earn a Top Seed?
Iowa has two regular season games left in the regular season, and they’re big ones: at Maryland and home against Indiana. Both are critical if the Hawkeyes hope to land a top seed, as both the Terrapins and the Hoosiers are also in line for top-two seeds in the NCAA tournament. Iowa beat Maryland 96-82 on Feb. 2 in Iowa City, then fell a week later to Indiana in Bloomington by an 87-78 count.
In both games, Iowa started fast. The difference was that Indiana was able to keep up and Maryland wasn’t. The Hawkeyes got 42 points from Caitlin Clark and 28 from Monika Czinano on their way to shooting 61.7 percent from the floor. Maryland coach Brenda Frese is one of the best in the business, and Iowa shouldn’t expect to have similar matchup advantages in College Park. To best the Terrapins again, Iowa will have to improve on its free throw shooting and offensive rebounds, neither of which were strong in the first meeting with Maryland.
Indiana is different. The Hoosiers are more offensive-minded than Maryland and can score with Iowa by riding Grace Berger and Mackenzie Holmes, who combined for 50 points in Bloomington. In that game, Clark got her points with 35, but nobody else topped 14. To handle Indiana, Iowa has to get more out of its complementary players.
A B1G Gameday in College Park. #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/xovxy1mZZn
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) February 21, 2023
Going Beyond the Regular Season
If Iowa can win both, it will be in line for a No. 1 seed as long as it avoids taking a bad loss at the Big Ten tournament in Minneapolis. The Hawkeyes would either be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the Big Ten tournament, which means they’d probably face one lesser opponent and then get a tough test from Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois. None of those would count as a bad loss, and losing to them would actually be less bad for the Hawkeyes than falling to Indiana or Maryland.
That’s because a loss to either the Hoosiers or the Terrapins would hand their rival for a top seed another point to add to their resume. If Iowa does fall in the semifinals or the finals, it would be best for it to come against Indiana, as the Hoosiers are ahead of the Hawkeyes in the rankings.
If Indiana earns No. 1 seed for itself, it’s not inconceivable for the Hawkeyes to join the Hoosiers on the top line. If Maryland gets on the top line, however, there’s little chance that the Hawkeyes’ resume would make them another top seed.
Gettin' warm. @kate_martin22 x #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/ojLsaLkZOP
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) February 22, 2023
What Seed is Most Likely for Iowa?
Iowa fans can count on two games played in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes are almost certain to finish no worse than a No. 3 seed. The Hawks have an excellent resume built already, and they cannot take a bad loss outside of the Big Ten tournament.
But this Iowa team has more on its mind than getting to the Sweet 16. The Hawkeyes want to get to the Final Four, and it’s pretty unlikely they’ll be able to beat South Carolina in South Carolina. That makes the Maryland game (and possibly a second one in Minneapolis) critical, as the loser will likely be on a collision course with the Gamecocks.
If the Hawkeyes want to have a chance at a national title, they’ll have a much better chance facing South Carolina in Dallas as opposed to Greenville.
Most likely, Iowa will be looking at a No. 2 seed for the third time in four tournaments. Given where this program used to be, that’s a heck of a position for the Hawkeyes to hold.
🐐 𝐆𝐎𝐀𝐓 𝐓𝐀𝐋𝐊 🐐@CaitlinClark22 x @LeeSpencerlee36#Hawkeyes
— The Iowa Hawkeyes (@TheIowaHawkeyes) February 21, 2023
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