We are just one step away from the women’s college basketball championship game, but before we crown a national champion, we need to make some women’s Final Four predictions. Women’s college basketball has taken a lot of the spotlight heading into the national semifinals.
March Madness lives up to its name in some ways – looking at you, Ohio State – but we have some major names left at this stage in the women’s NCAA tournament. Iowa Hawkeyes (Albany region 2), UConn Huskies (Portland region 4), South Carolina Gamecocks (Albany 1), and NC State Wolfpack (Portland 4) remain.
The Powerhouses: Women’s Final Four Predictions
Before we can really get into the heart of the women’s college basketball bracket, it helps to know which teams have made it this far into the NCAA tournament. South Carolina’s path through the SEC tournament, Iowa’s Caitlin Clark (both top seeds), the UConn Huskies big win in the Elite Eight, and N.C. State overcoming the odds to make its first appearance in the Final Four.
Iowa’s Path to the Final Four
Iowa has been the story of women’s March Madness for one reason: Caitlin Clark. She is the greatest player not only in program history but women’s college basketball. The eventual first pick in the WNBA Draft, Clark is looking to cap off this deep run with the first national championship in program history.
Getting out of the first round against Holy Cross was easy, the second round a bit tougher against a game West Virginia. The rematch against LSU and Angel Reese was sweet, getting redemption after Iowa fell short last season. The two teams clashed in the Elite Eight, Iowa grabbing the biggest win in its quest for a national championship.
Check how to watch Iowa Hawkeyes on March Madness here.
Last night was a dream 💭#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/PBi2VpWKah
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) April 2, 2024
South Carolina’s Path to the Final Four
Though Caitlin Clark is the talk of the women’s NCAA tournament, South Carolina looks to be the most dominant team. They easily made the Final Four and have been the NCAA women’s best team this season. They coasted through the first round and second round, ultimately surviving against Indiana.
They made the Final Four last year and have been a staple in the Elite Eight of the tournament for the last decade. They are currently the overwhelming favorite after reaching four Final Fours in a row. Though last season ended in disappointment, the regional final shows that South Carolina is set on making the national championship game this year.
#FinalFour and it feels so good!
This is a @GamecockWBB appreciation post. 👏 pic.twitter.com/wcBXBaOK2f
— University of South Carolina (@UofSC) April 1, 2024
UConn’s Path to the Final Four
The UConn Huskies are here after they fell short last year of their first title game since 2022. They have become synonymous with the NCAA tournament and women’s March Madness. Though they are underdogs to reach the title game, UConn is a NCAA women’s powerhouse.
UConn topped Duke after they upset Ohio State, ultimately beating Southern California in the Elite Eight. The first round started a smooth transition through the regional final and has put UConn where they typically are in March Madness. Getting past two teams like Iowa and potentially South Carolina would make this a tournament to be remembered.
BOW BOW BOW BOW pic.twitter.com/cZT8S6gCQ3
— UConn Women’s Basketball (@UConnWBB) April 2, 2024
N.C. State’s Path to the Final Four
Though the N.C. State women aren’t the underdog that the men are – who are also in the Final Four – the lady Wolfpack has earned its place in this March Madness college basketball tournament. They have been dominant on both ends of the floor, though they now face a Juggernaut in South Carolina.
They bested Tennessee and the Lady Vols, plus a top seed in Texas, to get here. They won two tough games and have a team that can get through with their best game. South Carolina is among the leaders in points per game, but N.C. State’s defense has led the way through each round of play.
Making space for another banner in the Old Barn.#GoPack // @PackAthletics pic.twitter.com/1qBCmNDsmU
— NC State WBB 🐺🏀 (@PackWomensBball) April 2, 2024
Dark Horse of the Tournament
It can be hard to focus on anyone but South Carolina and Iowa in this women’s basketball landscape. The two are the best in the women’s March Madness bracket and the class of the NCAA tournament. That said, there are two other teams that have made it this far.
Though favorites like Ohio State have been eliminated, those who remain are the best of the best. While it might be nice to have a team like Ole Miss, Kansas State, Tennessee, Texas, or Notre Dame here, these two dark horses have a real shot at winning the women’s college basketball national championship.
UConn/N.C. State
Both are considered dark horses for different reasons. In any other tournament, UConn would be the class of the college basketball world. They have a pedigree like no other but getting past Iowa and then potentially South Carolina would be quite the hurdle.
For N.C. State, they will play no better team than South Carolina. Even getting through to face Iowa, the Big Ten Champions, wouldn’t be as tough. For now, the game against South Carolina is the focus
Iowa guard Caitlin Clark (22), guard Sydney Affolter (3) and Iowa guard Kate Martin (20) celebrate after defeating LSU in an Elite Eight round college basketball game during the NCAA Tournament, Monday, April 1, 2024, in Albany, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
Key Players to Watch
Though there have been great players like Angel Reese, Celeste Taylor, and Juju Watkins already out of the tournament, each game will feature some pretty incredible players. The five players on the floor each team play a role, but these are the biggest names left.
Clark continues to set records with every touch of the ball, even in March Madness. Aaliyah Edwards will certainly give Iowa a challenge, better than just about anyone on the teams the Hawkeyes have faced so far. N.C. State will be led by Cameron Brink against Kamilla Cardoso and South Carolina.
Strategic Matchups and Coaching Brilliance
Strategy is going to be key at this stage of the NCAA tournament. Reaching the national championship and winning March Madness requires more than talent at this point. Each of the four teams has gotten here by taking a per game approach. That said, each coach has played a major role.
Dawn Staley – South Carolina
One of the biggest reasons that South Carolina has been so good is because of Staley. She has been in South Carolina since 2008, rebuilding the program from scratch. Getting out of the first round is no longer enough; it is now about winning the college basketball national championship.
Staley and the Gamecocks have a pair of those, as well as four Final Fours. March and South Carolina have become entwined. Another women’s March Madness win would put South Carolina in elite territory in women’s basketball according to our Women’s Final Four Predictions.
Geno Auriemma – UConn
What can be said about Auriemma that hasn’t already been said? He is the king of college basketball coaches, whether it be men’s or women’s programs. Every regular season, the Huskies dominate. Every game is one that the Huskies expect to win.
He has been Naismith Coach of the Year eight times, National Coach of the Year seven times, AP Coach of the Year nine times, and a whopping 11 national championships. He isn’t accustomed to losing, which is why any game against UConn is so tough.
MN Gophers vs U Conn, post game Geno Auriemma Head Coach on November 19th 2023 at Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minnesota (photo credit John McClellan)
Lisa Bluder – Iowa
Though she has had some good teams throughout her 20+ years at Iowa, this might be the first team that Bluder has had where the regular season was an afterthought. Losing isn’t acceptable and every win brings them closer to their ultimate goal – being the champion of women’s college basketball.
Navigating the attention that comes with having Caitlin Clark on your squad has made March a little tougher. That said, they got through the regular season, won the Big Ten Championship, and are just one game away from competing for a title.
Lisa Bluder on the sidelines during a 2023 Big Ten tournament game between Iowa and Purdue
Wes Moore – N.C. State
Moore has been at the helm since 2013 and has had success prior to this year. He is a three-time ACC Coach of the Year and won the WBCA National Coach of the Year in 2021. Despite a No. 3 seed, the Wolfpack are the clear underdogs in this tournament.
This is the first Final Four appearance for the Wolfpack since 1998 and just their second ever. Brink has led the way with her spectacular play, and a little momentum can certainly go a long way when it comes to the women’s college basketball tournament.
What a moment for NC State HC Wes Moore. He got a new hat with this win and gets to take home a net! pic.twitter.com/b49uFZ2ID7
— Ethan McDowell (@ethanmmcdowell) March 31, 2024
The Role of Team Depth and Defense
Though it may go without saying, the play of team defense is a critical factor in every game. Though rankings can be somewhat arbitrary, being near the top of the list in terms of points in the paint per game, turnovers per game, etc. can really tell you more about each team.
For instance, the Gamecocks are in the top 25 in points in the paint and opponent assists/turnovers per game. They are second in the nation in defensive rebounds per game and the best in field goal defense. Iowa teeters in a few categories but generally is outside of the top 25.
All four offenses have explosive potential. Without strong team defense, however, that will only go so far. In the Final Four, the teams that manage to lock down important possessions will be the ones that advance to the national championship game.
Women’s Final Four Predictions: Historical Context and Performance
South Carolina and UConn have the most historical success. They have a litany of Final Four appearances between them, and the Huskies have 11 national titles under Auriemma. South Carolina has become a powerhouse in the last 15 years, however, dominating each season.
Iowa is making its third Final Four appearance while N.C. State is making its second Final Four. Historically speaking, there is no comparison between the four programs. But last season doesn’t matter this time of year. Each game is the biggest to date and can change the fate of a program, especially one like Iowa or N.C. State.
Final Predictions
At this point, it is hard to see anything but a South Carolina-Iowa final in the Women’s Final Four Predictions. Clark seems like she is on a path of destiny, but South Carolina is without a doubt the most complete team in the nation. The march through the Final Four will create one of the greatest matchups in women’s college basketball history.
That said, crazier things have happened. UConn has the history behind them and could turn this into a season to remember. And don’t sleep on N.C. State, either. But in the end, the biggest game possible will feature the top two seeds in the tournament and those are our Women’s Final Four Predictions.
