Get ready for the best Sweet 16 predictions. It’s that magical stretch of March where Cinderella stories, blue-blood dominance, and one shining moment teases are all in full effect. If you’re here, you already know: March Madness is not just a tournament — it’s a lifestyle. And now, with both the men’s and women’s brackets down to the Sweet 16, we’re staring down two glorious days of basketball theater.
As someone who spends more time watching Synergy clips and KenPom graphs than sleeping this time of year, I’ve got your extended Sweet 16 predictions, analysis, and betting takes — covering every matchup still on the board. Let’s get into it.
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🏀 Men’s Sweet 16 — Friday, March 28
🧊 Michigan State (No. 2) vs. Ole Miss (No. 6)
Pick: Michigan State 74, Ole Miss 68
Betting lean: Michigan State -3.5 | Under 143.5
You’ve got two totally different energies here. Michigan State is all about half-court execution, methodical ball movement, and elite perimeter defense. Tom Izzo’s crew is holding teams under 28% from three — absurd in the modern game.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, has thrived behind balanced offense and low turnover rates. They’re not flashy, but they’re smart. Dre Davis has emerged as a difference-maker, and Malik Dia can stretch the floor against bigger defenders.
But this is March. And Izzo is Izzo. Look for Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson to step up late and help Sparty secure an Elite Eight trip.
Check out Michigan vs Ole Miss prediction here.
🔥 Tennessee (No. 2) vs. Kentucky (No. 3)
Pick: Tennessee 76, Kentucky 71
Betting lean: Tennessee -4.5 | Over 146.5
Here’s your SEC rubber match — and it’s spicy. Kentucky won both meetings this season, but Tennessee’s revenge arc feels real. Rick Barnes’ team has the No. 3 ranked perimeter D in the country and the most efficient half-court offense they’ve had in years.
Chaz Lanier is on a heater (24.5 PPG in the tournament) and is flanked by guys who defend like their scholarships depend on it. Kentucky has firepower — DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham can get hot in a hurry — but they’re inconsistent and have struggled from the stripe (just 61% in the tournament so far).
This one’s close early, but the Vols pull away late behind stops and free throws.
Check out detailed prediction for Tennessee vs Kentucky here.
🐺 Auburn (No. 1) vs. Michigan (No. 5)
Pick: Michigan 75, Auburn 73
Betting lean: Michigan +8.5 | Under 152.5
This is my upset alert of the Sweet 16. Michigan’s size is going to cause real problems for Auburn. Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin are a combined 14 feet of rebounding, rim protection, and efficient post scoring. They had 37 points and 21 rebounds in the Round of 32 — against a top-20 defense.
Auburn has the edge in guard play and depth, no doubt. But they’ve looked shaky closing games and could struggle to handle Michigan’s deliberate tempo. If the Wolverines get to the foul line, they win this outright.
This one’s going to be physical, tense, and maybe the game of the night.
🧱 Houston (No. 1) vs. Purdue (No. 4)
Pick: Houston 69, Purdue 61
Betting lean: Houston -7.5 | Under 132.5
Defense wins championships, and Houston has the best defense left in the field — maybe in the nation. They’ve held teams to 58.4 PPG, and they are deep, physical, and relentless.
Purdue is no slouch. Braden Smith is a first-team All-American and Trey Kaufman-Renn leads the country in FG%. But they’re turnover-prone, and if Houston smothers Smith at the point of attack, this thing could get ugly.
Kelvin Sampson has this team locked in — expect Houston to grind their way to another Elite Eight.
Check out Houston vs Purdue betting prediction here.
🏀 Women’s Sweet 16 — Saturday, March 29
💪 Texas (No. 1) vs. Tennessee (No. 5)
Prediction: Texas 74, Tennessee 63
Betting Lean: Texas -6.5 | Under 141.5
This Texas vs Tennessee Sweet 16 clash features two of the most historic programs in women’s college basketball — but right now, only one looks ready for a Final Four push.
Texas is rolling. The Longhorns have won 11 of their last 12 and are playing their best defense of the year, holding Illinois to just 48 points in the second round. Madison Booker continues to look like one of the most composed players in the nation — she dictates pace, gets to her spots, and always makes the right read. Add in the length and physicality of Taylor Jones and Aaliyah Moore down low, and this team looks built for March.
Tennessee has firepower — especially with Rickea Jackson, who’s capable of dropping 25+ on anyone. But the Lady Vols are inconsistent. They trailed Princeton early and needed everything they had to hold off Baylor. If they don’t start fast, Texas will squeeze them in the halfcourt and grind the game away.
The Longhorns already beat Tennessee by three in Knoxville back in December. Expect a similar game — but this time, with Texas more in control down the stretch.
Why Texas wins: Depth, defense, and Booker. Tennessee may make a few runs, but the Longhorns are better on both ends — and it’ll show as soon as this one turns into a halfcourt battle.
Check our detailed Texas vs Tennessee women preview here.
💪 UConn (No. 2) vs. Oklahoma (No. 3)
Prediction: UConn 82, Oklahoma 67
Betting Lean: UConn -15.5 | Over 145.5
This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the women’s Sweet 16 — not because it’s expected to be close, but because UConn looks like a juggernaut again, and we’re about to see just how real that is.
The Huskies absolutely obliterated their first two opponents (194-91 combined score). Their defense is No. 1 in the country, they’re scoring over 80 PPG, and oh yeah — Paige Bueckers is playing like she never tore her ACL. The 50/40/90 splits. The assist-to-turnover ratio. The court vision. She’s doing it all, and freshman Sarah Strong has been the perfect sidekick.
Oklahoma’s got a solid resume and is coming off a dominant win of their own (96-62 over Iowa), but UConn’s length, pressure defense, and scoring depth will be overwhelming. Raegan Beers will need a career night and some help from the perimeter — but even then, Geno’s crew just has too many weapons.
I expect Oklahoma to hang for a quarter or so before UConn pulls away with an extended second-half run.
Why UConn wins: Defense, discipline, and Bueckers. This team looks like it’s on a mission to get back to the Final Four — and beyond.
Check our UConn vs Oklahoma preview here.
⚡ Notre Dame (No. 3) vs. TCU (No. 2)
Prediction: Notre Dame 77, TCU 72
Betting Lean: Notre Dame -6.5 | Under 144.5
This matchup is a rematch from the Cayman Islands Classic, where TCU stormed back from a 14-point deficit to beat Notre Dame. Now, with a Final Four berth within reach, it’s personal.
TCU is on fire — riding a 13-game win streak and making their first-ever Sweet 16 appearance. Led by Big 12 Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith and 6’7″ center Sedona Prince, they’ve built a battle-tested roster through the transfer portal.
But Notre Dame is peaking at the right time. Hannah Hidalgo has been electric, and the Irish are blowing out tournament opponents by 36+ points on average. They rebound better, have more depth, and they’ve been here before.
Expect a back-and-forth battle, but the Irish’s March experience and Hidalgo’s tempo control give them the edge late.
Why Notre Dame wins: More composure in crunch time, elite rebounding, and a backcourt that thrives under pressure.
Check our TCU vs Notre Dame preview here.
🏀 USC (No. 1) vs. Kansas State (No. 5)
Prediction: Kansas State 70, USC 66
Betting Lean: Kansas State +1.5 | Under 140.5
This Sweet 16 matchup presents a compelling narrative as the top-seeded USC Trojans face the fifth-seeded Kansas State Wildcats. USC’s journey has been marked by resilience, especially after the loss of their star guard JuJu Watkins to a season-ending ACL injury during the second-round victory over Mississippi State.
In Watkins’ absence, Kiki Iriafen stepped up with a stellar 36-point performance, demonstrating USC’s depth. However, the challenge intensifies against a formidable Kansas State squad led by Ayoka Lee, a dominant presence in the paint. The Wildcats showcased their grit with an overtime win against Kentucky, highlighted by Temira Poindexter’s eight three-pointers and six blocked shots.
The betting lines reflect the anticipated competitiveness of this game, with USC favored by a narrow 1.5 points and a total over/under set at 140.5. Given USC’s recent adjustment to their lineup and Kansas State’s momentum, the Wildcats have a prime opportunity to capitalize and advance to the Elite Eight.
Why Kansas State wins: Their inside-out game, anchored by Lee’s dominance in the post and complemented by perimeter threats like Poindexter, poses a significant challenge to a USC team adapting to the loss of their leading scorer.
Check out our preview for USC Trojans vs Kansas State Wildcats here.
🔥 Best Bets of the Sweet 16 Predictions
- Men’s: Michigan +8.5, Tennessee -4.5
- Women’s: LSU -2.5, Maryland +10.5
- Parlay to Watch: Tennessee ML + Houston ML + LSU ML = Value + Vibes
🏀 Sweet 16 Predictions from Your Hoops Insider
The Sweet 16 is where March Madness goes from chaos to calculation. These games are about matchups, momentum, and who wants it more when everything tightens up. I’ll be on my couch with three screens, a notebook, and probably yelling into the void — because that’s what this month does to you.
Whether you’re betting, watching, or just riding the emotional highs and lows of your bracket, this is the best time of the year. Period.
