It’s Sweet 16 Saturday, and few games are more intriguing—or more emotionally charged—than USC vs Kansas. The No. 1 seed Trojans enter this matchup fresh off a dominant win, but they do so without their phenom, JuJu Watkins, who tore her ACL in the second round. It’s a brutal blow to a title contender, but forward Kiki Iriafen has answered the bell—and then some.
The Kansas State Wildcats, meanwhile, survived an overtime thriller against Kentucky and are now eyeing a massive upset in Spokane. With March Magic in the air, could this be another underdog story in the making?
Check out how to bet on March Madness here.
🔥 How USC Reached the Sweet 16
- Round of 64: Defeated UC Irvine 82-51
- Round of 32: Defeated Mississippi State 96-59
The Trojans steamrolled Mississippi State in their second-round matchup, led by an electric 36-point, 9-rebound performance from Kiki Iriafen. What made the performance more impressive? It came just minutes after JuJu Watkins exited with a devastating ACL injury that ended her season.
Rather than faltering, USC elevated—with Iriafen leading the charge and players like Rayah Marshall and McKenzie Forbes stepping up. Under coach Lindsay Gottlieb, the Trojans remain a balanced, elite defense-first team that can run in transition and shoot the three.
🟣 How Kansas State Reached the Sweet 16
- Round of 64: Defeated Drexel 70-61
- Round of 32: Defeated Kentucky 80-79 (OT)
It wasn’t pretty, but Kansas State got it done in OT against Kentucky, winning 80-79 behind Temira Poindexter’s 24 points and a near triple-double from guard Serena Sundell, who dished out 14 assists. Ayoka Lee, the Wildcats’ 6’6″ center, pulled down 9 boards and remains a matchup problem for any team in the paint.
This is K-State’s first Sweet 16 appearance since 2002—and they’ve got a chance to take advantage of a USC squad adjusting to life without its superstar.
💰 USC vs Kansas Odds & Betting Insights
| Bet Type | Odds |
| Spread | USC -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 141.5 |
| Moneyline | USC -225 |
| Moneyline | Kansas State +185 |
🔒 Best Bets:
- Kansas State +5.5: USC is adjusting without JuJu. Kansas State’s size and depth may keep this one close.
- Under 141.5: Both teams are defense-first, and tempo could be slowed due to matchup chess inside.
- Kiki Iriafen Over 22.5 Points (Prop): She’s now the alpha. Expect another big night.
📊 USC vs Kansas: Head-to-Head Breakdown
| Category | USC Trojans | Kansas State Wildcats |
| Record | 30-3 | 28-7 |
| Points Per Game | 78.9 | 73.4 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 58.1 | 62.6 |
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT Shooting | 36.2% | 31.5% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 40.5 | 39.8 |
| Tournament Seed | No. 1 (West) | No. 5 (West) |
⭐️ Key Players to Watch in USC vs Kansas
USC Trojans
- Kiki Iriafen (F): The new go-to option. Her 36-point performance in the Round of 32 was one of the most dominant of the tournament so far.
- Rayah Marshall (C): A defensive anchor who will be key in battling Ayoka Lee inside.
- McKenzie Forbes (G): Veteran presence who can shoot, distribute, and calm the offense.
Kansas State Wildcats
- Temira Poindexter (F): Dynamic scorer who can stretch the floor and drive.
- Serena Sundell (G): The engine of the offense. Her 14 assists vs Kentucky were a career high.
- Ayoka Lee (C): One of the best post players in the nation—physical, smart, and experienced.
🧠 Coaching Matchup
- Lindsay Gottlieb (USC): Back in the Sweet 16 with a team she built into a national powerhouse. She’s masterful at defensive game-planning.
- Jeff Mittie (Kansas State): Has quietly built a gritty, veteran team. His X’s and O’s could be the edge in a close one.
🔑 Keys to the Game
What USC Must Do:
- Control the tempo: Prevent K-State from forcing them into the half-court.
- Win the paint battle: Marshall and Iriafen must neutralize Ayoka Lee.
- Stay composed: JuJu was their leader. Someone must become the emotional compass.
What Kansas State Must Do:
- Crash the glass: Second-chance points could swing this game.
- Force tough shots: USC no longer has its bailout scorer.
- Let Sundell cook: Her vision can pick apart USC’s aggressive D.
🏆 USC vs Kansas Prediction: Who Wins?
This one is a true March Madness toss-up. Kansas State has the post advantage, and USC is still finding its new identity without Watkins. But the Trojans looked shockingly sharp in the second round, and Kiki Iriafen seems ready to take on the lead role.
If Sundell and Lee can dominate for Kansas State, we may have an upset. But I’m backing USC’s talent and depth—just barely.
Final Score Prediction: USC 69, Kansas State 65
Pick: Kansas State +5.5
Best Bet: Under 141.5
MVP: Kiki Iriafen (24 pts, 10 reb)
📺 How to Watch USC vs Kansas Women
- Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, WA
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+, fuboTV, NCAA March Madness Live
🧠 Final Word: Is USC Still a Title Threat Without JuJu?
That’s the million-dollar question. The USC vs Kansas matchup will tell us a lot about the Trojans’ resilience and depth. And with Ayoka Lee looming in the paint and Sundell running the show, Kansas State is no easy out.
But if Iriafen keeps ascending, and the Trojans stay locked in defensively? The dream is still alive in LA.
