The NHL has hailed many all-time greats of the sport. At a time, Bobby Orr was the ultimate player, but then came Wayne “The Great One” Gretzky, who torched just about every recordbook going. For decades, his records have been hailed as unbeatable, but now, one of his most prestigious is very much under threat.
Gretzky’s NHL record for the most total goals scored in the regular season stands at 894 in 1,487 games. As of his 41st game in the 2024/25 season, Alexander Ovechkin sat a mere 12 goals behind that tally. Importantly, what with hockey being a team sport, it seems as though Ove’s mission has catalyzed a superb season for the Caps.
A Grand Push for Ovechkin and the Capitals
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Since the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup in the 2017/18 season, they’ve endured a particularly underwhelming run reminiscent of the modern Toronto Maple Leafs. Over the last six seasons, the Caps have made it to the playoffs five times but haven’t made it past the First Round once.
Further, since the 2019/20 season, Washington’s finishes in the Metropolitan Division have read as second (in the makeshift East Division), fourth, sixth, and fourth. All of a sudden, the Stanley Cup hangover looks to have been shaken off, with Ovechkin’s pursuit of history seemingly spurring the team back to the top.
By the team’s 57th game of the season, they led the goals for column with 211. They were second in the overall standings with 84 points, but led the points percentage column at .737, leapfrogging the Winnipeg Jets. Yet, their surge up the standings is still seen in a somewhat cautionary light with regard to the postseason.
Looking to the sports betting lines for a view of how the expert oddsmakers are predicting this season will go, the Washington Capitals aren’t even in the top three to win the Eastern Conference. This Canadian betting site currently suggests that The Caps, at this point in the season, were fifth at odds of +575 to top the conference and make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.
This is despite them being the heavy favorites at -3300 to win the Metropolitan Division, that also features the New Jersey Devils – a team ahead at +550 to take the conference. Strangely, even with his scoring, the Russian wing is at +6600 to take the Rocket Richard Trophy. Of course, that’s down to the onslaught of goals from the odds and league leaders, such as Leon Draisaitl, who’s at -2000 to take the scoring crown.
Ovechkin’s pursuit of history does have the Caps drawing in at +1000 to win the Stanley Cup now, but the top scorer’s certainly weighing these odds. Draisaitl’s Edmonton Oilers lead the charge at +600. In fairness to the oddsmakers, the Caps haven’t been reliable in the playoffs recently, and they don’t have a clear superstar in the mix for awards honors.
Even with Ovechkin scoring at a high clip and the team around him clearly elevating their play compared to recent seasons, there’s a quiet caution surrounding their prospects going forward. At this point, there’s a good chance that the Caps can take the Presidents’ Trophy for topping the NHL regular season, and Ovechkin will beat Gretzky’s record.
Ovechkin’s on Target to Beat Gretzky, and Then Some
Coming into the season, Alex Ovechkin was out at long odds to score the 42 goals needed to eclipse Gretzky’s long-standing NHL goals record. The 39-year-old was seen as being on the decline, having posted 50 goals, 42 goals, and 31 goals in each of the last three seasons. This season, he missed nearly six weeks from November 19 to December 28.
Ovechkin immediately hit the ground running, scoring four goals in five games. For his 41st game of the season, to snap a two-game goalless streak, Ovechkin put away three goals to help oust the Stanley Cup favorites, the Edmonton Oilers, 7-3. His hat-trick got the Caps captain to 29 for the season and 882 goals overall.
Assuming that he stays fit for the rest of the season, which recent seasons would suggest he can, Ovechkin’s goals average suggests that he’ll conquer Gretzky before the regular season ends. With 29 goals in 42 games, he’s scoring at a rate of one goal every 1.45 games. With 25 games left, keeping that rate would return another 17.24 goals.
With 17.24 goals – which we’ll call 17 goals for the sake of argument – Ovechkin would surpass Gretzky’s tally of 894 by five goals. On 899 goals, there is naturally the chance for Ovechkin to become the first player to break the 900-goal mark either this season or next season – the last of his current contract.
Importantly for the Capitals, they’ll want to keep feeding the hefty left wing. Despite missing so much time, Ovechkin’s tally of 29 goals to the team’s total of 211 at the 57-game mark means that he has a 13.7 percent share of all of their goals scored.
With six game-winning goals already, he’s rightly the centerpiece of the Washington attack. Very interestingly, and perhaps forebodingly for their opponents in the postseason, Ovechkin is only averaging 17:36 minutes on the ice per game. That is a massive career-low for the sniper, meaning that he could be even fresher for the playoffs.
Alex Ovechkin’s against-the-odds pursuit of a place atop the record books looks to have galvanized the Washington Capitals team, which could very well spur them to even greater things in the postseason if he achieves his goal.
