This year’s playing conditions in Miami—fast Laykold courts and humid Florida air—favor big servers and aggressive baseliners. That’s a notable contrast from Indian Wells, where slower conditions allowed for longer rallies and defensive play. As we head into the business end of the tournament, let’s dive into the updated odds, key players to watch, and our best betting predictions on both the men’s and women’s sides.
🎾 Miami Open Women’s Quarterfinals
World No. 2 Iga Swiatek advanced to the Miami Open quarterfinals with a 7-6(5), 6-3 victory over No. 22 seed Elina Svitolina. The match, lasting just over two hours, concluded shortly after midnight on Tuesday.
Swiatek, the 2022 Miami Open champion, is pursuing her first title of 2025. Despite not securing a title this year, she leads the tour with 21 match wins, surpassing Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka, who each have 20.
The opening set saw Swiatek break Svitolina three times, but each time, Svitolina immediately broke back, leading to a tiebreak. Swiatek built a 3-0 lead in the tiebreak, and despite Svitolina’s efforts to level, Swiatek secured the set with a crosscourt backhand winner. In the second set, Swiatek had opportunities to lead 5-1, but Svitolina resisted, narrowing the gap to 4-3. However, Swiatek broke again and closed out the match, totaling 34 winners to Svitolina’s 22.
🎾 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini
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Future: Sabalenka to win tournament (+350, 1.5 units)
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Hedge Bet: Paolini ML (+500, 0.75 units)
📉 Analysis:
Sabalenka is a big favorite here, and for good reason. But hedging with Paolini at +500 gives you value without cutting too deep into your future:
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Paolini has played confident tennis, and Sabalenka can go off rhythm in slower conditions.
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You can still profit even if the underdog pulls off the upset.
📊 Strategy: Smart hedge opportunity. If Sabalenka wins, you’re still in a great position to hedge the final at value.
🧠 Miami Open Men’s Predictions
All remaining players will take the court on Thursday at the Miami Open presented by Itau, with semifinal spots up for grabs.
Check out our predictions.
🎾 Jakub Mensik vs. Arthur Fils Prediction & Pick
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- Pick: Jakub Mensik ML (-110)
- Risk: 1.5 units
📉 Analysis:
The market is likely to lean toward Arthur Fils after his statement win over Alexander Zverev, but there are strong reasons to fade Fils in this spot:
- Physical concerns: Fils dealt with cramps against Tiafoe and was noticeably uncomfortable with back tightness in his win over Zverev. Now, he’ll be playing on less than 24 hours of rest.
- Mensik is well-rested: Tomas Machac withdrew from their last match, meaning Mensik enters fresh while Fils grinds through back-to-back battles.
- Underrated form: Mensik owns wins over Casper Ruud (Australian Open) and Jack Draper (Indian Wells champion) and has a big game built for hard courts—huge serve, lethal backhand, and heavy forehand.
📊 Edge: Mensik’s power game and rest advantage make him a strong play against a compromised Fils.
🎾 Novak Djokovic vs. Sebastian Korda
Novak Djokovic and Sebastian Korda have met just once before—at the 2023 Adelaide final—and it was a thriller. Djokovic narrowly escaped with a 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 victory, fending off a red-hot Korda in a match that helped catapult the American to a breakout run at the Australian Open weeks later.
In this rematch, Djokovic enters as the more reliable baseline player. His ability to absorb pace and extend rallies means that Korda will need to play on the front foot—dictating play with aggressive shot-making to have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Korda’s game is built for this kind of challenge. His flat, penetrating forehand and clean two-handed backhand can do damage from anywhere on the court. But the question remains: can he sustain the perfect balance of aggression and consistency over two or even three sets?
There’s no doubt Korda has the weapons to challenge the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Still, when it comes down to mental fortitude, point-by-point focus, and the ability to close, Djokovic remains the gold standard.
✅ Pick:
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Winner: Novak Djokovic
🎾 Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Berrettini
Taylor Fritz thrives in Miami’s conditions and has the advantage of consistency and superior movement from the baseline. He’s been one of the most dependable American players on hard courts over the last few seasons, and his ability to neutralize big servers gives him the edge here.
Berrettini’s serve-and-forehand combination remains elite, and if he’s landing his first serve, he’ll be tough to break. Still, Fritz has the defensive skills to extend rallies and pressure Berrettini into errors, especially in key moments.
Expect a tight match, but the edge goes to Fritz—who’s showing solid form and looking for a breakthrough title on home soil.
✅ Pick:
- Winner: Taylor Fritz
🧮 Updated FanDuel Odds (March 24)
🔹 ATP Winner Odds
🔸 WTA Winner Odds
📅 What’s Next?
The Miami Open runs through Sunday, March 30, and ClutchBuzz tracking the betting angles, breakout stars, and championship threats every step of the way.
