Check the UFC Mexico odds here. The Octagon returns to Mexico City on March 29, 2025, as UFC Mexico takes over the iconic Arena CDMX for a stacked card featuring high-stakes matchups, passionate hometown crowds, and a long-anticipated flyweight bout between fan-favorite Brandon Moreno and rising contender Steve Erceg.
This UFC Fight Night event — officially titled UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg — is set to electrify the crowd at Arena CDMX in Mexico, showcasing local heroes, rising prospects, and divisional veterans alike. With twelve fights on the card, the event promises nonstop action, but all eyes are on the main event as two of the division’s most dynamic fighters battle for position in a stacked flyweight landscape.
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UFC Mexico Odds and Fight Night Overview
- Event Name: UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
- Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
- Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City
- Start Times: Prelims at 7 p.m. ET | Main Card at 10 p.m. ET
- Broadcast: ESPN2, ESPN+
Main Event Spotlight: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
A High-Stakes Flyweight Bout in CDMX
In the headline matchup, former two-time UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) returns to Mexico City looking to reestablish his dominance in front of a hometown crowd. The event marks Moreno’s fourth fight in CDMX in Mexico City, and although he’s yet to secure a win in his home country, fans are hopeful that this will be the turning point.
Standing across the Octagon will be Steve Erceg, the No. 8 ranked flyweight. The Australian contender made waves after earning a surprise title shot in 2024. Despite suffering back-to-back losses — including a TKO defeat to Kai Kara-France — Erceg’s UFC run has proven he’s more than capable of standing toe-to-toe with elite talent.
Why This Fight Matters
This flyweight bout is pivotal for both fighters. For Moreno, a win would solidify his status as a top contender despite recent setbacks. For Erceg, this could be a make-or-break moment to avoid sliding down the rankings. With Arena CDMX packed with die-hard fans cheering on “The Assassin Baby,” expect fireworks from the opening bell.
Moreno vs Erceg Betting Odds and Market Analysis
These odds suggest that Moreno is the favorite, reflecting his championship experience and recent performance.
Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Age | Height | Reach | Stance | Record | Significant Strikes Landed per Minute | Significant Striking Accuracy | Takedown Average per 15 Minutes | Takedown Accuracy | Submission Average per 15 Minutes |
| Brandon Moreno | 31 | 5’7″ | 70″ | Orthodox | 22-8-2 | 3.99 | 43% | 1.59 | 46% | 0.6 |
| Steve Erceg | 29 | 5’8″ | 71″ | Orthodox | 12-3-0 | 4.37 | 48% | 1.16 | 26% | 1.0 |
Fight Analysis
Striking: Erceg has a slight edge in both volume and accuracy, landing 4.37 significant strikes per minute at a 48% accuracy rate, compared to Moreno’s 3.99 strikes per minute at 43% accuracy.
Grappling: Moreno demonstrates a more effective grappling game, averaging 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 46% success rate, while Erceg averages 1.16 takedowns with a 26% success rate.
Experience: Moreno’s extensive experience against top-tier competition, including multiple title fights, provides him with a strategic advantage in high-pressure scenarios.
Prediction
Considering Moreno’s well-rounded skill set, championship experience, and the advantage of fighting in his home country, he is favored to secure a victory. However, Erceg’s striking proficiency and resilience make him a formidable opponent. The fight is anticipated to be competitive, potentially extending to the later rounds or a decision.
ClutchBuzz Betting Recommendation
Given the current odds, a bet on Brandon Moreno to win is advisable, as his comprehensive skill set and experience suggest a higher probability of victory. For those seeking greater value, considering a prop bet on Moreno winning by decision could be worthwhile, reflecting the likelihood of a closely contested bout.
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Co-Main Event: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
Another guaranteed slugfest, the co-main event features Mexico’s Manuel Torres taking on veteran brawler Drew Dober in a lightweight clash that screams post-fight bonus.
Torres, known for his explosive finishes, will look to bounce back after a setback at UFC 306. Dober, with his granite chin and aggressive style, always delivers violence. This could easily steal the show as Fight of the Night, though it’s unlikely to reach the judges’ scorecards.
Other Main Card Highlights
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
This middleweight showdown pits veteran Kelvin Gastelum against the surging Joe Pyfer. Gastelum is back at 185 lbs with something to prove, while Pyfer is hunting another highlight-reel finish to climb the ranks.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
One of the most anticipated names on the card is Raul Rosas Jr., who faces seasoned fighter Vince Morales. This bantamweight bout will test the 20-year-old prospect’s grit as he looks to extend his winning streak against a dangerous opponent who’s fighting to stay on the UFC roster.
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
Local debutant David Martinez steps into the spotlight with the chance to make history for his fighting family. The Contender Series alum faces Brazil’s Saimon Oliveira, returning after a two-year absence. With both fighters eager to impress, expect high intensity from the first horn.
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Opening the main card, Ronaldo “Lazy Boy” Rodriguez is a social media sensation in Mexico and looks to make it three straight UFC wins against Peru’s Kevin Borjas, who’s had a tough start in the promotion. This flyweight matchup should bring the crowd to life early.
UFC Mexico Prelims: Hidden Gems to Watch
Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri
Ranked strawweight Loopy Godinez finally gets to perform in Mexico City. She’s looking to break a two-fight losing streak against Brazil’s Julia Polastri, who secured a win in her last outing.
Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa
Featherweights Christian Rodriguez and Melquizael Costa both come in hot off recent victories. This fight pits two submission specialists against each other — someone may sleep before the bell.
Gabriel Miranda vs. Jamall Emmers
In a potentially chaotic clash, Gabriel Miranda looks to rebound from a knockout loss, while Jamall Emmers hopes to finally build momentum inside the Octagon.
Rafa García vs. Vinc Pichel
Fan-favorite Rafa García fights at home against 42-year-old veteran Vinc Pichel. Expect a gritty three-round war in this lightweight showdown.
MarQuel Mederos vs. Austin Hubbard
Kicking off the night, Austin Hubbard returns to the UFC cage against MarQuel Mederos, who’s riding a seven-fight win streak and hoping to extend his run in front of the passionate Mexico City crowd.
UFC Mexico: Parlay Bets Suggestions
For UFC Mexico City on March 29, 2025, here are some parlay suggestions based on current odds and expert analyses:
1. Two-Fight Parlay: Brandon Moreno and David Martinez to Win
- Brandon Moreno (-238): Moreno’s experience against top-tier flyweights positions him as the favorite against Steve Erceg.
- David Martinez (-400): Martinez, a former Combate Global Bantamweight champion, faces Saimon Oliveira, who has struggled in the UFC with an 0-2 record.
Parlaying these two favorites increases potential returns while maintaining a favorable probability.
2. Three-Fight Parlay: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober Under 1.5 Rounds, Raul Rosas Jr. to Win Inside the Distance, and Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Under 2.5 Rounds
- Torres vs. Dober Under 1.5 Rounds (-180): Both fighters have high finish rates, suggesting a likely early stoppage.
- Raul Rosas Jr. to Win Inside the Distance (-225): Rosas Jr. has demonstrated a strong finishing ability, making an inside-the-distance victory plausible.
- Gastelum vs. Pyfer Under 2.5 Rounds (+100): Given Pyfer’s power and Gastelum’s durability, a finish before the midway point is a reasonable expectation.
This parlay focuses on fights projected to end early, leveraging the fighters’ histories of finishes.
3. Two-Fight Parlay: Christian Rodriguez and Loopy Godinez to Win
- Christian Rodriguez (-155): Rodriguez’s grappling skills may give him the edge over Melquizael Costa.
- Loopy Godinez (-235): Godinez’s wrestling advantage positions her favorably against Julia Polastri.
Combining these two favorites offers a balanced risk-reward ratio.
4. Long Shot Parlay: Manuel Torres to Win by Submission in Round 2 (+1600) and Kelvin Gastelum Moneyline (+270)
- Torres by Submission in Round 2 (+1600): Torres has a history of submission victories, and securing one in the second round presents a high-reward opportunity.
- Gastelum Moneyline (+270): Despite being the underdog, Gastelum’s experience against elite competition makes him a viable upset candidate against Joe Pyfer.
UFC Mexico City History: A Legacy of Memorable Moments
This is the seventh UFC event in Mexico City, and each one has delivered unforgettable moments:
- UFC 180: Fabricio Werdum stunned Mark Hunt with a flying knee to win interim heavyweight gold.
- 2015: Tony Ferguson bested Rafael Dos Anjos in a breakout performance.
- 2016: Future champs Alexa Grasso and Brandon Moreno both competed — Moreno fell short, but it was only the beginning of his rise.
- 2019: The infamous eye-poke incident between Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens left fans furious.
- 2024: Mexican fighters shined — until the final two fights turned the tide.
Now, in 2025, the UFC returns to Arena CDMX, and the stage is set once again for Mexican talent to shine in front of their home fans.
Final Thoughts: UFC Mexico Fight Night Is a Must-Watch
Whether you’re tuning in for the intense flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg, curious about David Martinez’s debut, or excited to see Gabriel Miranda, Melquizael Costa, and others throw down, this card delivers something for everyone.
The energy of CDMX in Mexico City, the legacy of Arena CDMX, and the stakes for every fighter ensure that UFC Mexico will once again be a night to remember.
FAQ about UFC Mexico
What time does UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg start?
Prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, with the main card kicking off at 10 p.m. ET.
Where is UFC Mexico City 2025 being held?
The event takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico.
How can I watch the event?
UFC Mexico will air on ESPN2 and ESPN+ in the United States.
Who is the favorite in the main event?
Brandon Moreno is the betting favorite at -185 heading into his bout with Steve Erceg.
Has Brandon Moreno ever won in Mexico City?
Despite being a two-time champion, Moreno is winless in Mexico City across three previous appearances.
